I'm curious - why so certain? One possibility with a theoretical no vote (with I think commercially is up with hell freezing over) would be HL on-selling their stake if they get blocked. The market is telling them they are over-paying now. So why would them come back later and then pay even more? Plus of course the SDL board would have to resign with a no vote
Rio was trading a lot higher than its GFC low when it walked away from the Chinalco deal. Its fundamental value shone through. Whereas even after today SDL is trading 20% below an offer price, i.e. the market doesn't rate SDL.
Chalk and cheese
SDL Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held