SHANGHAI - China's top copper producer Jiangxi Copper Company...

SHANGHAI - China's top copper producer Jiangxi Copper Company said domestic copper consumption growth is expected to exceed 9% in 2011, and warned of a global shortage by as early as next year.

Gan Chengjiu, chief financial officer of Jiangxi Copper, said copper consumption would closely track the country's economic growth and the near-term demand outlook was bright.

"We forecast consumption will grow more than 9% in 2011," Gan told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry conference, adding that growth was also expected to come in at around 9% this year.

Gan said growing demand from China and India, coupled with recovering consumption in developed economies, was set to bring about a global shortage, as miners struggle to keep pace with demand.

"Some industry observers have forecast the shortage to be between 300 000 t and 600 000 t. I think the shortage will be within that range or possibly higher depending on the pace of recovery in the global economy," Gan said.

Gan's thinking echoes that of other major producers, including mining giant BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, which have both cautioned that supply could fall short because of a lack of investment in new mines.

China's production of refined copper in October dropped 1,2% from the previous month and 0,2% from a year earlier because of the week-long National Day holiday and repairs at a large smelter.

The world's top copper consumer produced 400 000 t of refined copper in October, down from September's 405 000 t, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.