WhenChina (attempts to) take Taiwan, Australia will be at war with China. This is a given, and if you don't believe it, then you do not even reach first base in the discussion. It is bipartisan 'agreement' between both major Australianpolitical parties to assist in defending Taiwan. That is why we have beenpatrolling the South China Sea now for many years. It is also worth noting thatChina has already declared that our patrolling there is already an act ofwar. Furthermore, they recently wrote in their English newspaper, theGlobal Times, that Chinese rockets can reach every part of Australia. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1222899.shtml
The greatest obstacle to China's victory is the US 7th Fleet, stationed inJapan since the end of WW2. Even though it is one of the most powerful fleets -the others are also US - it is just one, with some Allie assistance, like Australia and other likeminded nations from Asia,Europe and Canada. https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/joint_b_2.pdf -(Europe’s Naval Engagement in the South China Sea).
But in my view, these Allie naval forces will not successfullydefend Taiwan, as they cannot withstand the onslaught of the entire Chinese military apparatus in their own backyard. Rather, I think that there is every chance that the US will suffer another Pearl Harbour event.
The greatest weapon China has are its missiles, which leave the earth's atmosphere, and descend vertically on any target, and are almost impossible to defend against. As such, the US is not prepared to send further fleets to the region, and in myview, likely to lose the 7th Fleet.
Throughout history, warfare has taken a radical change when a new weapon enters the battlefield. When the first sword was made, sticks and stones could no longer break bones, and the long bow decimated calvaries. Gunpowder?
In 2020 during the midst of the C19 pandemic in New York, Marise Payne went there and brought $800 000 worth of missiles. The Australian government does know what we are facing, but you have to listen to more than the 6:30 news to appreciatethe fuller situation. Australia is woefully underprepared for war in our region. All military analysts state the same.
When Australia is at war with China over Taiwan, all Chinese owned assets in Australia, which include 2% of our landmass, and numerous industries etc, all return to the Commonwealth.
China will reject this section of our constitution, as they believe that we are the aggressor - as they regularly remind us - and they will come to take 'what rightfully belongs to them.'
I believe that if the US and its allies are beaten in the South China Sea, which is highly possible, if not probable, then China will invade northern Australia to reclaim what they believe rightfully belongs to them. China can easily land several hundred thousand troopsin Australia in a matter of weeks. This is why we have suddenly brought these missiles, to attempt to stop the invasion.
In 1939 before WW2 began, if anyone had suggested that Germany would take Paris within six weeks, they would have been laughed off the continent, or that Japan will take Singapore by bicycle, you would have been consideredmad.
Draw a line from Gladstone to Shark Bay. China will attempt to take everything north of it, and is very likely to succeed.
