it would be nice to think that China does not want war, but we have to be careful not to be trapped within our own wishful thought bubbles, and ignore the evidence. China has clearly stated that they will take Taiwan by force if needed. Why would they say this if they thought there was a peaceful means to achieve it, but they know there isn't one. The concensus of the Taiwanese peolpe is overwhelmingly in favour of never becoming part of China, and hence, China's threats. But they are making more than mere threats. They have had the greatest military buildup in history of any country in peace time, and just this week announced a 6% increase to military spendng, even though their economy has had its smallest increase in 50 years. In other words, the growth of their economy now is inversely proportional to their military spending. The military was also put on full alert recently and told to prepare for war. These were openly made statements. China never puts a word out of place when it comes to international dialogue, as everything is ferfectly scripted. Anyone who does speak out of turn is soon reprimended, banished from public, or worse. China's words and actions all point towards war, so we would be living very dangerously, and recklessly, to ignore it.
watso,
thanks for the commentary. Hugh White, a very expereinced military analyst, is one of the few these days suggesting that we need to soften our approach to China. Paul Keating, our ex PM, says the same, but in stronger terms, and of course, there are numerous Australian business people who would like us to give China a kiss to make up and get on with business as usual. That would be all very nice if achievable.
Then why don't we? There are issues that have consequences, but still require pursuing, like one of the first that greatly irriatated China: our dropping of Wah Wei, and then suggesting to the FIve Eyes to do the same. The question is, why did we do that, just as the UK has recently done, and most other Western Nations now following suit and doing likewise with other similiar Chinese technology. Only answering this question honestly can we begin to appreciate the real business and other intentions of China. To be frank, everyone knows that Wah Wei, a state owned enterprise, is corrupted by the CCP's eaves dropping technology. It is therefore part of Chinese Spyware, and a threat to other nations sovereignty. There is little argument about this.
But should we keep it for 'business as usual.' I ask this as it is in keepiing with much of the theat that comes from China across industries. When we couple this with Chinese military buildup outside their borders, their bluntant arrogance in claiming land and seas beyond their borders that have been ruled out as owned by them by the international court, and their coercion diplomacy in third world countries, there is plenty of reason to be concerned by China's path.
Appeasement has never proven a safe policy. Hong Kong is a good example. They have quickly gone back on their word of 'two systems, one nation.' In short, it is China's way or the highway. The world is responding accordingly, and slowing down on our defence would be a tragic mistake. Our governments first duty is to defend our nation, and very few believe kowtowing will achieve that.
Sure, taking Taiwan will be a bloody affair, but unfortunately China is heading full steam to achieve it. No guarantees that they wil do so.
My suggestion is that the US will suffer badly, leaving the door wide open for further Chinese expansion, before attempting to 'reclaim' what they will lose by default in Australia when we are at war with them on the first day of the Taiwanese conflict. Without the US in between us and China, our nothern regions will become China's next target. This seems incredibly unreal, but so did the fall of Singapore and France.
The real question that needs to be answered, is how can Australia defend itself when required. I suggest that we could only hold the southern half.
