In the US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, Jan...

In the US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, Jan 2009 it was reported that as a result of a comprehensive study of Chinese phosphate rock reserves by a major uni in China, their RP reserve has been revised down to 4.1b tonnes, whereas in 2008 it was reported as 6.6b tonnes. If my math is correct that's a 38% drop in reserves and suddenly Morocco (incl Western Sahara), not China, are #1 in having the largest RP reserve at 5.7b tonnes. Maybe another reason why China imposed a quota on exporting RP in 2009 of 1.5m tonnes??

Anyone know which Chinese Uni conducted this study? It would make for handy reading.

With the former #1, China, appearing to have significantly less RP reserves than previously reported this would have to increase upward price pressure on exported RP for a number of reasons. Some that I can think of are:
1. China will need to import more RP to meet their domestic needs
2. They will almost certainly export less
3. OCP becomes even more clearly (if that's possible) the export price setter

In the same report in relation to the US it mentions there are 3 new RP mines planned in Florida over the next decade to replace existing mines, I believe due to diminishing reserves, but they are facing opposition from local govt concerned about environmental and water issues. It seems the US may also become a bigger importer of RP if they keep running down their reserves without adquately replacing them domestically.

All good news for MAK!

Hold firm OCP, you have the high ground!!

Link:
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/