It's not war, it's dominance that China wants. The return of the ‘Middle Kingdom’ - 中国 Zhong Guo.
It's marching toward it inexorably and if you read more source materials - like for instance, Xi's speeches to the national congresses of the Communist party of China - and rely less on clueless Western analysts it will start to make more sense.
I don't want to make my post overlong but have posted on each of these points before, and each is backed up by Xi's own words, CCP speeches and Chinese state media. So, in brief and writing very quickly before work, here's what's happening as I see it:
China saw itself as the ruler of everything of worth between heaven and earth for hundreds of years. The ‘Middle Kingdom’ - 中国 Zhong Guo, surrounded by barbarians but controlling all civilisation of value.
Westerners humiliated it in the 19th and 20th Centuries.
The People's Republic of China is best understood as a classic Chinese dynasty, with the CCP its Royal Family and Xi its current Emperor.
Deng Xiaoping, its previous ruler, adopted a policy of keeping its head down and building the economy at an incredible rate. China's rise was seen as quiet but unstoppable, like a rising tide or flood.
Xi has been more aggressive and laid two main aims.
He promised doubling of living standards by 2021, the centenary of the CCP. (That goal may be lost now and a reason for recent blaming of Westerners for domestic problems.)
He also promised for China to be the Middle Kingdom once again by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China.
As the world's largest power, it will not be accepting fully independent rivals but vassal states. That is, countries it has by the balls.
Among other things, it is using trade, loans to developing countries and the control of shipping and trade routes to create that dependence. It is threatening Tonga now for unpaid debts, it is threatening Australia with loss of exports and, in the long-term expanding its territory so it can stop shipping and essential supplies to us at a whim. Literally stop our country from functioning unless we bow the knee.
When Trump was first elected, China moved up its charm offensive so as to grab the world leader spot as the US became isolationist.
Since the pandemic, something has drastically changed. It is threatening many countries very aggressively at the same time. This is unusual and very un-Chinese - to pick a fight with every other guy in the bar.
So the situation is quite separate to any confrontation with the US. It needs to be viewed through a far wider lens. China is thrashing round right now and it's a huge worry. This is not the time to appease that behaviour. It's the time to stand up to it.
