chinese buying iron ore potash lithium , page-56

Damn, I wish I could have actually seen the response I got. I was, unfortunately, actually working.

I'm not trying to downramp. That's ridiculous. Like I've said before, I've been in and out of ADY twice. Once in 07, in at 23 out at 46. This year, in at 25.5 out at 22.5 the day before Opes exploded. So I have been in and out on the up, and on the down. That's my disclosure.

Now, I've gained a greater appreciation of ADy since I left the day before Opes.

For one, I've learned a lot more about PT, Blumberg and the management of ADY.

I've learned about who likely owns the stock (aside from ANZ), and what sort of gymnastics Blumberg and cohorts went through shifting ADY stock through ANZ, Merril, Green Frog, Riqueza, Hawkswood, LEveraged Capital and God alone knows what else. This sort of share calisthenics doesn't endear me to believing that the movements in volume we see are reflecting anything to do with "fair market value".

Which is where we get to the crux of the last month. Sure, we bottomed out at 16.5c and we bounced to 19c. But in my opinion, and I know whis is likely fact, its mostly been day traders feeding the volume because in the last month ANZ has had 5x the volume needed to ditch its risk but it can't have.

So the cat didn't meow when it bounced. Its dead. The fair market value of the company might contain some premium of derisked lithium potential - but with a company trading as a 'going concern' and working just from the figures in the latest presentation, I think we can't expect a great fair market value for such a struggling, marginal, debt ridden company - which is going to do well to break even this financial year.

And big whoop if you can see the trucks driving around Caleta. They can't load ships fastetr than 95-100Kt per month, end of story - and you can work out ADY's profitability and everage on debt simply by using mathematics limited by this production, their costs, and their revenues.