With current trends, there is just the same probability that the US will slip back to being a Regional Power:
Rationale: -Historically countries leading global trade & manufacturing have challenged the global hegemon (NB: the Thucydides Trap) and according to Graham Allison "Destined for War" there is a 75% chance that the US will go to war to stem China's rise.
That said there is a 25% chance based on historical data that the US wont go to war to protect its global hedgemon status.
IMO the longer that this war can be avoided, the greater probability that China will develop Nuke and conventional war capabilities...so much so that there will be Cold War # 2 with the US pushed back to being the Western regional power & China being that of the east.
There is evidence of that happening now with the US relocating some of its Nuke bombers from Guam to Darwin and the probable development of Darwin being a US Nuke Sub regional base out of the range of Chinese Hypersonic missiles.
All IMO only and I'd invite your rationale that "China will slip back to being a regional power" IMO it is already a regional power.
