I do get that the upside is reduced by the OZL takeover. But you also must acknowledge that the AVB assets included in the OZL portfolio significantly reduces the downside. As I said in another post your logic only works if the full value of those assets is realised within AVB. AVB could well develop those assets but through a combination dilution, price of debt, currency etc, not actually realise any value from them. It certainly occurs in this industry far more than it doesn't. The assets will be significantly de-risked if the takeover goes ahead.
Now like anyone I would have preferred a higher price for my shares but I must say the negativity towards the takeover is little over done IMO.
AVB Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held