Chinese interest?, page-42

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QuietFrog

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29/03/18

19:13

Post #: 32130682
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Originally posted by Locust1 ↑

Hey Champ
Disclosure - I am a shareholder of OZL.
However, I have been in AVB for over a decade. It has been a once in a lifetime investment for me. I have sold my full stake over the last 2 sessions.

Having spent significant time in this industry and participated in development of similar assets, I understand how hard it is to realise value developing these assets. A lot can go wrong and usually does and I'm not sure some shareholders including yourself appreciate the significant risk involved in developing these assets. For example the market cap is many multiples of what it was 10 years ago however up until a few days ago the share price had gone backwards from around 10c to 7.5c. This despite AVB management doing a great job of procuring great assets in a leading basin and brilliantly developing and operating AN. If you would have held for that time you would be in the red on your investment. Now I understand there have been many reasons for this (GFC, dilution etc), but the point still stands that realising value out of assets in this industry is incredibly hard. AVB could well develop these assets over the next 7 years and still not realise any value. That risk is significantly reduced though not completely eliminated if or when they become part of OZL. Being able to get some cash and still participate in the upside of AVB is a good result as far as I am concerned.

I don't have an agenda at all, I simply enjoy discussing a subject that is dear to my heart with other like minded posters. I value other opinions even if I don't agree with them all the time. You might regard it as ''bullshit'' logic and it could well be if every AVB plan goes smoothly but they rarely do.

Good luck, I hope you get everything you want out your investment.

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"Having spent significant time in this industry and participated in development of similar assets, I understand how hard it is to realise value developing these assets. "

Developing Centro can't be harder than AN. You can say all you want to say about how hard it is. But the fact is they've developed AN and AN is generating cash - realising value.

AVB Price at posting: 15.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Chinese interest?, page-42

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