Hi WD, hi all,
Firstly, I'd like to say that there have been some great contributions on this thread and others on the CHK board and It's all very much appreciated.
WD, your post lured me to have a look at the entire thread once again and there were some interesting views earlier on regarding the potential of CHK. Indeed, there were many posters who thought that CHK could reach a market cap similar to other exploration stocks on a verge of a possible discovery, and there were others that thought otherwise. It really is difficult to predict what the future will hold isn't it, and a prediction that looks good one week can look ridiculous the next. That is the nature of markets and what makes it so interesting and challenging.
Recently I've been reading a book called Beyond Greed and Fear, which is a book on the psychology of investing. It's a book more in the academic sense than of the larger-than-life stock market stories of legend type of book, nevertheless there are some interesting insights in the book.
One interesting insight is the issue of market participants being overconfident in predicting stock market movements. A study showed that market participants are generally overconfident in their predictions. But contrary to what one may initially imagine, that is, market players are overconfident in the sense that they are over exuberant in their predictions, it is the opposite. Participants are generally overconfident in their predictions in the sense that they place their limits for stock movements too narrow. Basically participants are generally overconfident that a stock will not reach a certain level.
Two well known stocks that have perhaps proved this point of setting our limits too narrow are DEG and CHN.
When DEG came out with their Hemi discovery, who would have thought that DEG would move from 5c to $1.50 reaching a market cap of $1.5 billion, and all within a year. Or that CHN would move from 14c to $4.50, also reaching $1.5b within 9 months from discovery.
It sure is difficult to foresee those types of movements, and as many would know, we have all in one time or another sold out of positions thinking what masterminds we were, only to see the stock go higher and higher.
By no means am i suggesting that CHK will replicate a DEG or a CHN, as only drilling results and even more drilling results can only dictate what will happen to CHK into the future. But if CHK is able to confirm a discovery over the upcoming weeks and months, then CHK definitely has the potential to surprise many of us to the upside.
Having said all that, as many have previously stated and rightly so, it's all about risk / reward, and one should only do what one is comfortable with, and that's all we should do. That is always a sound principle to steadfastly follow.
Exciting times ahead!
The very best to all!
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