There is so much more going on here than simply results from HWDD04 imo and well worth attempting to join a few of the dots.
Firstly BHP moved Oak Dam West to project status and scrapped plans for the expansion of Olympic Dam preferring instead to focus on incremental debottlenecking . They are using the results to date to inform the next phase of work due to begin in the first half of the 2021 calendar year. It is also apparent from reading independent commentary that Oak Dam West will be a big part of the Olympic Dam expansion story moving forward.
Is this 6 month drilling delay simply a co-incidence in that CHKs results fall into this planning window OR is it something else?
Then post HWDD04 and the investor presentation the MD bought very big on market plus the SPP which appears to be a move to make it harder for bigger players to gain a larger stake cheaply (higher share price and dilution not available to bigger players).
A overseas discovery fund also came on board at this point with tweets indicating on market purchases of 2% with possibly more to come post assays.
Olympic Domain then decided to dig their heals in on ratifying the 80% spend pretty much immediately after HWDD04 got interesting even though CHKs spend had already passed the threshold.
As all this was playing out you also had FMG showing their appetite for a big IOGC deposit with most likely work south of CHK and on their recent results in their JV with TAS.
What all this means is that upcoming results 'IF' good enough have the potential to creat some real competitive tension between bigger players (both funds and companies). It's not just the big 3 of BHP, FMG and OZL that will be watching there are many other players who will be looking for these types of deposits (e.g. Glencore), it could also make the radar of other funds.
Then the MD could even buy again and you can't discount another spp play at some point.
One thing for sure is there is a lot at stake here and CHKs actions to date have demonstrated that they are very aware of this fact.
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