FXEMPIRE
Why Platinum Could Hit $4,000 Before Gold
By:
Phil Carr
Platinum prices are up more than 50% year-to-date, fuelled by surging industrial demand, accelerating investment flows and one of the deepest supply deficits the market has seen in over a decade.
Gold
-0.00%
Platinum
-2.57%
While Gold has had a strong year – soaring 32% and briefly crossing an all-time record high of $3,500 an ounce – analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence believe the next big move in the precious metals market won’t come from Gold at all.
It will come from Platinum.
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According to GSC Commodity Intelligence – “This is a rare alignment of macro, industrial and investment forces that could Platinum push prices to $4,000 an ounce before Gold ever gets there”.
Gold’s Rally Isn’t Over – But Platinum Is Quietly Outperforming
Gold remains a core safe-haven asset, but after a blistering run, prices have started to stall just below the $3,500 level. In contrast, Platinum has entered vertical breakout mode – skyrocketing to $1,350 an ounce, the highest level since September 2014.
In China, the world’s largest Platinum consumer – demand is exploding. Imports into China increased 11.5 tonnes in April, the highest monthly total in over a year.
At Shenzhen’s Shuibei Jewellery Market, the number of Platinum jewellery retailers has tripled in a matter of weeks with Goldsmiths scrambling to pivot into Platinum. In a survey conducted by GSC Commodity – Intelligence local traders signalled wait times for Platinum jewellery fabrication has doubled under unprecedented rising demand.
Gold Fatigue Is Fuelling Platinum’s Breakout
With Gold nearing psychological resistance, Platinum is emerging as the contrarian play.
Bank of America estimates that if just 1% of global Gold jewellery demand pivots to Platinum, it would require an additional 700,000 ounces of supply – enough to double the current global deficit overnight.
Meanwhile, Platinum ETFs and institutional positioning have surged, with investment demand forecast to hit 688,000 ounces in 2025. Analysts at TD Securities warn that ETF accumulation is now draining the free float – setting up the potential for tightening liquidity and a short-squeeze.
Platinum’s Supply Crisis Is Accelerating
The bullish setup doesn’t stop at demand. The supply side is even more explosive.
The World Platinum Investment Council, forecasts a 966,000 ounce deficit in 2025 – marking a third consecutive annual shortfall.
Meanwhile, physical stockpiles could drop below 2.5 million ounces, covering just 2 to 3 years of consumption at current pace.
Adding to the growing deficit – South Africa, which supplies over 80% of the world’s Platinum, continues to face electricity blackouts, mine shutdowns and capital shortfalls.
Even worse, Impala Platinum’s CEO recently warned that prices are still too low to justify new mine development – signalling no new supply is coming online anytime soon.
Platinum’s Industrial Edge: Utility Meets Scarcity
Gold may be money. But Platinum is utility.
More than 80% of Platinum demand comes from industry, especially automotive applications. As global internal combustion vehicle production rebounds, Platinum use is spiking.
Analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence estimate, a 1% drop in EV market share could increase Platinum demand by 25,000 ounces.
Add to this Platinum’s growing use in hydrogen fuel cells, chemical production and green energy tech and you have a metal that’s both financially attractive and industrially indispensable.
Platinum Is 18x Rarer than Gold – Yet Trades at Half the Price
Platinum is among the rarest metals on earth. For every ounce of Platinum mined, 18 ounces of Gold are extracted. Yet today, platinum trades at less than 50% the price of Gold.
Historically, Platinum has outpriced Gold for decades – until the dislocations of the last 10 years. That historic relationship is now on the verge of snapping back – with force.
The Case for $4,000 Platinum
With supply eroding, demand booming and the Gold-to-Platinum ratio stretched to unsustainable levels, the stage is set for a parabolic move. Platinum at $4,000 an ounce may no longer be a bold forecast – it may be a matter of time.
Gold may be pausing. But Platinum is just getting started.
As GSC’s Head of Trading, Phil Carr notes: “Whichever way you look at it, the most asymmetric opportunity in the precious metals complex is here – and it’s Platinum”.
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