Ask at your own peril! It's a detailed one
@4sighttrader
it's quite hard to predict what
CHN might do at this stage, however I am happy to examine more deeply.
Weekly chart below on
CHN shows that they did use the
$1 very nicely to create some base in the price. Dependant on how Palladium does, there could be more upside although with 50% of all shortsellers being margin called, there's still a lot of genuine shortsellers who remain unclosed. Bear in mind, CHN has gone from $1 lows to $2.09 in a very short time frame.
This also means the Market Cap has increased over 120% in a small time frame,
on NO material news EXCEPT Shortsellers being Margin Called by UBS, I presume chasing up State Street which would make sense as to why we have seen UBS Substantial Holding increase as they now have a NET LONG due to
shares being called back. It's incredibly tough to decipher it all but it was from my simple quick glance only!
There is old news from 2020 about the Gonneville Historic Discovery recirculating due to the recent rise in Palladium. The stock had 4+ years for any takeovers or something more fruitful. They clearly didn't want it at $2, $5 or $10.
Notice there is a gap at 63.5c to 86cI think once Market Makers take this up as high as they can (because they don't want to hold shares down to 63c) it makes sense for them to offload into higher prices. Once that unravels it is quite possible that
once $1 loses support, 86c and 63.5c become magnets. If and when, only time will tell.
Let's take a look at Palladium on smaller timeframes I have sketched a
5min chart below with thoughts attached.
We can see that Thursdays closing price is the 1st yellow line from the top
2nd yellow line is Fridays low of day.
On Friday,
Palladium saw a
-3% drop from Thursdays closing price
From Friday lows it shot up
+8%. It is worth noting on smaller timeframes that Palladium is in a falling wedge and may look to retest the breakout level around
$1,165 areas and if it can hold, it may break out from the declining wedge to retest Friday's highs. If the momentum and demand is strong enough, it can clear Fridays High Of Day also for trend continuation.
How will this affect CHN? For that I must analyse CHN charts attached below. First one is an
hourly chart when the markets closed, no moving averages and basic trendlines and support/resistance which shows $2 being sold into several times.
On top of that, it's showing the biggest selling volume thus far during the opening hour, indicative of someone taking a good chunk of profits.
Pattern appears to be in an ascending triangle, although with Friday's price action, smells more ominous of a shakeout on the way but will need more data.
EDIT: On the chart attached below, I wrote pennant flag, I meant ascending triangle lol too many patterns and charts in my mind!
Moving from the hourly, I shall put a
5min CHN chart with thoughts attached
Prices gapped up, and spiked in the morning due to Palladiums overnight move.
The gap up from Thursdays close created a
GAP in the chart.
Shortly after the Friday open, what's known as a Gap and Crap played out where prices slammed all the way back to Thursdays close of
$1.935, after reaching a high of
$2.09!For palladiums strong move, this is opposite price action.
Nonetheless this helped close the Gap due to Friday Gap Up
Prices tried spiking from 11.20am to 1.20pm, but met resistance at the opening price of $2.03. Ironically, this also filled another gap on the way up!
Prices then sold back down closing at $1.94.
We can extract that
a big $2 seller took prices back down. It also was the largest seller volume
5min chart shows
OBV during the ascending triangle to be on declining volume ie
someone's been selling into a low volume drive up. 5min chart shows same thing on
RSI, losing strength through the entire ascending triangle
Quite a few bearish signals
The Daily chart attached with some notes also, we can see
$2 to $1.90 has been the constant supply level, with double bottoming base at
$1We can essentially call this nearly
1 year of Range-Bound action. With prices recently rejecting $2 with big red seller volumes, this shows prices at the extreme end of the range.
Something LONGS need to consider!
NOTE: 200 EMA is at $1.62 it should stay above this to avoid a further price drop.The White circle is what I am looking to see a repeat of. Can prices sell down into the
$1.70 gap fill? Wouldn't be far off the parallel channel its in.
This would assist the RSI cooling off as we can currently see a triple top of the overbought area. Back in May 2024, RSI hit overbought after a big run, dropping prices by -50% it would be hard for me to ignore 3 recent overbought signals with smaller time frames showing
multiple $2 failure.With all charts combined, there are
notable blinkers and signals that are flashing for short term pullbacks. Hard to determine where it will catch, but we have clear zones to keep an eye out for.
Once $1.85 levels fail, it adds probability to the rest of the bearish case scenario to play out.
As a short term trader, these aren't prices I want to look for longs, unless it shows it has potential to run to $4, which then would make $2 attractive. With more data we can reassess again GLTAHz!
It would be wise of management to try raise another $50M at the minimum into the hype.
(20min delay)