I am not convinced by the BASF substitution for catalytic...

I am not convinced by the BASF substitution for catalytic converters. I read about the development and there are several proviso's.

First and foremost is the claim, from them , that it can replace 20% to 50% of the palladium required. I find this to be a VERY vague statement...for a proven process and it did not say how much platinum is required.

There is also the provision that it is for light vehicles only. So cannot be applied to 100% of the market. So using very rough averages i'd say a 10% to 30% reduction in demand is the best they can hope for.

And then the demand for platinum goes up...and its price does too! Bottom line is Palladium is still the best and preferred material for the job. If it evens out to closer match the price of Platinum we are still doing quite well.

The market is in a supply deficit that has only been alleviated by the short term reduction in demand for vehicles. The auto makers and the market will resolve the supply problem, and when they do they will still require the Palladium....

Ill stick by the average of the four bank forecasts I posted earlier.