As the bb’s gone quiet in advance of news, I’m going to indulge in a bit of idle prognostication. I think the absence so far of the news we were given to expect in November; namely the flowrates from J53 post-remediation and those from J55; might well be a positive sign. It seemed to me fairly obvious that J55 was a strike some time before it was announced; the new investor pres, the new broker rec from GMP Sec, and the comments in JPR’s ‘final results’ communication, all strongly hinted at a positive outcome at J55. To me, the smart move would be to drip-feed the J53 & J55 news a week or two in advance of the result of J58, so as to attract attention and investment to JPR. The J58 well spudded on Oct 21 with a 60-day estimated timeframe to the result, and this same period was exactly adhered to at J55. On this basis, we could expect a result for J58 on perhaps Dec 20, which is likely to be the last meaningful trading day of 2012 (anyone with any sense will be knocking-off early and going on the grog on Friday 21). To me, this looks to be a sensible schedule of events.
I suspect that reaction to another strike at J58, which I feel is likely, might take the sp up another leg and see JPR around the 65-75c mark. Assuming this hoped-for outcome, JPR would be well set to enter the New Year with perhaps three highly significant pieces of news to come near-term; namely, progress with the TPL status of J51 and J53 which, if positive, would give perhaps c1500bopd of production (incl J50 & J52 which are already on TPL); test flowrates for J58; and the much-anticipated new CPR in early 2013. If the latter comes in with a 2Ps number perhaps close to 50mmbo recoverable (based on the 5 successful wells to date and assuming success at J58), then JPR should be in a whole new ballpark before much longer. I’d like to hope that with that sort of outcome, the days of the current $86m market cap would be consigned to history.
JPR Price at posting:
53.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
