Citi upgrade GXY to BUY..., page-103

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schmunzel75

1,632 Posts.

640

17/06/17

10:17

Post #: 25331307

Originally posted by Alterego1168 ↑

Here's a simple analysis.. cut down from my detailed one

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1 Cat Amount ($) Comment

2 Prod rate 160,000 Assumes no prod delays

3 $USD 830

4 Revenue 132,800,000

5

6 Production cost inc marketing fee 420

7 Cost 67,200,000

8

9 Gross Profit (USD) 65,600,000

10 To AUD(0.75) 87,466,667 Have not yet deducted corporate overheads; Interest payments on debt, etcAssumes no delays in shipping; Payment only receives upon lithium ship.

Mr Anthony Tse's own target:

View attachment 614058
I definitely think GXY will achieve $60M, higher end of the range, but worst case only $40M
Lots of people thought it was such a low target (and easily achievable) which I agree ! But dont reckon it's $100M +

The $389 /tonne is indeed a cash cost to produce lithium at the plant.. but there's the marketing fee that needs to be paid on top.. and all other associated costs... need to calculate AISC (just like gold industry players do)

Regardless in terms of SP (which I care most about) is that I think it'll probably float back up next week... Bullish Harami formed..

If 2018 pricing is same or slightly higher, it'll derisk GXY financial position, and hence will go up. Pretty much all the risk has been priced in at current levels, and so any derisking will cause SP to only go up.

Massive sell off = typical response = sell first, ask questions later...
If sustain on monday, will buy back in .... most likely will go up. as sell off already over done and complete.

Expand

UltraEgo, what debt are you talking about? The recent CR was to provide working capital and retire debt. You knew this for sure, yet you left this debt note nicely highlighted in red in your table. Like every other positive information out there. Pick and choose the negative bits about GXY and sell you POV, never providing the full picture. I call this propaganda! Who are your trying to fool? Where are the company analyses which show profit predictions anywhere around or below your calculation of AUD 60Mil? Yeah, I thought so. Come one, you can do better to twist the truth.

Last edited by schmunzel75: 17/06/17

GXY Price at posting: $1.64 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

13 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add GXY (ASX) to my watchlist

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1	Cat	Amount ($)	Comment
2	Prod rate	160,000	Assumes no prod delays
3	$USD	830
4	Revenue	132,800,000
5
6	Production cost inc marketing fee	420
7	Cost	67,200,000
8
9	Gross Profit (USD)	65,600,000
10	To AUD(0.75)	87,466,667	Have not yet deducted corporate overheads; Interest payments on debt, etcAssumes no delays in shipping; Payment only receives upon lithium ship.

Citi upgrade GXY to BUY..., page-103

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