X64 (ASX) citibank buy

Originally posted by CPDLC ↑

Hi Speculator101,

As already stated, getting sight of the 1H16 financials will be a great help regarding the likely level of cash at the year end 30/6/16. However, since you ask, I can only make an estimate based on the FY15 figures and the September quarter, then extrapolated forward for the remaining quarters.

At 30/6/15 they had cash of US$9.987m plus Gold awaiting settlement of US$4.626m, ie US$14.6m.

Current GST/VAT receivables were US$17.165m.

Current liabilities were Borrowings of US$3.822m, Trade & Other of US$16.282m and Employee benefits of US$0.504m.

But of course we do not know the timings for both receipts of receivables or payment of liabilities. So on a quarterly basis it is not possible to be precise.

Based on the September quarter figures they had c. US$5.3m of free cash flow yet Cash + GaW dropped US$3m, so it looks like they paid down a net US$8m of their liabilities.

At the current Gold price I estimate c. US$4.5m in FCF for the December quarter, then c. US$7.7m for March quarter and c. US$9.1m for the June quarter. Cumulatively that would indicate cash of around US$33m at financial year end. Taking a (riskier) longer term view, the same extrapolations with new shaft benefits and lower AISC would appear to indicate cash of c. US$100m by FY17 end.

But taking a wider view I really do not expect the US$ Gold Price to remain at these levels until mid 2016 because gold liquidity is steadily draining from the LBMA and the upcoming price setting on the Shanghai physical market in (perhaps) April will further wrest price discovery from London and New York.

Coming back to MML, you mention 'Major Capex'. This all drew to a close over FY14 and the only extant Capex is the US$10m required for the Service Shaft which is already more than half completed.

Regarding 'other projects': they have already got Bananghilig to an early stage of development but, quite reasonably, that has been parked for the time being due to metal prices and the need to conserve cash. They had previously commented that they wanted to build cash back up to c. US$200m before fully embarking on this development.

Bananghilig has 770koz of Indicated and 370koz of Inferred Resources (to JORC 2004 standard).

There is also Guinhalinan which they are moving towards a feasibility study.

I agree with you about PRU. According to my data it appears to be on a similar P/E to MML. I cannot comment on the other two stocks you mention as I have not tried to cover them.

All the best.
CPDLC

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Thanks for the detailed reply CPDLC.
Ok, so they are over the hump capex wise and I appreciate your estimates.
If those numbers are hit, MML will be a very different company. I cannot deny if they are even able to build up a $100m cash balance, my jaw would drop, but.. I will wait and see what happens first.
I did not realise that Bananghilig resource was so big, I guess the grades are too low for a small plant etc.

In regards to PRU, they basically are cash backed and have an E/V of zero, or at least, it was close to that last time I read up on it. They do have a fair amount of capex to go, but they have a USD hedge worth quite a lot so, pretty cheap to me, albeit in Africa which I think has more risk than Phil.

I do agree with you about the U.S gold price, but again, the FED etc seem to have quite a bag of tricks, so I am being very patient with my gold holdings.

Out of interest, do you have a spread of gold stocks?

Good luck with MML, management seem to be prudent enough to reward shareholders, unlike many goldies.