citigroup, page-12

If a company chooses to sell, and there are more sellers than buyers, it stands to reason that prices will fall. That is not necessarily the fault of management (although it could be as well).

I don't know what goes on behind the scene between Rio, BHP & UMC, but UMC decision not to join NW Alliance was obviously deliberate. I choose to believe that management have some skills (Chinese investment at premium to market price says they have skills, as does proving up the resource within the current time period).

The NW Alliance holds a confrontational position, which may yield fruit. If they win access via the courts, it is likely (in my somwhat humble view)that UMC would also gain access - whether they participated or not.

UMC appear to be trying a softer (and quieter - to the annoyance of posters here) negotiation position, which may also yield fruit. They might win access outside of the NW Alliance, on a different timescale.

Who is to judge? (Obviously some of you are, but I don't yet).

The asset remains high quality & the likelihood of it being mined remains the same as before. The JV between Rio and BHP is likely to be the catalyst for changes to rail access.