You asked for 'any thoughts' and dismiss the thoughts provided.
Apply a probability of a civil war breaking out and assume that civil war means Base returning zero.
Then you can have more of a look at expected returns based on revenue projections and remove the 'fear/emotion' from your decision.
There are countless variables you can choose to incorporate and not many have the capacity to do so accurately.
Given the revenue projections for Base (assuming Toliara proceeds), the margin of error is quite large.
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