Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

CKK

Click for more information

15.8%

1.6¢ coretrack limited

That's a long post. You do raise some good points. Of course it...

First 48 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
fromwell

346 Posts.

35

31/05/15

00:42

Post #: 15383771
Share

Originally posted by muppet655 ↑

I'm genuinely happy for all the guys sitting on solid profits and agree it could go way higher on hype (but remember that's what will be driving it higher), seriously the comparison isn't great - AJX is forecasted to be generating annualised revenue of $20 million with a 30% margin come December (so looks cheap to me), and potentially $250 million in a couple of years and works in a far different sector. CKK/NWP is a couple of months from even the first few kilos of test proppant coming out of their pilot plant. Yes a big partner could sidle up but this product is a fair distance from being proven even with a JV, and the company has 2,100,000,000 shares on the register with another billion or so will come online with the milestones (which were recently watered down). With only a few million in the bank the best hope is that the product is so sought after that several companies are chasing their signature otherwise will more dilution and concessions come along?

Current fully diluted market cap is therefore around $50 million already and touched $75 million at its intra-day peak (not forgetting that it remains in the ecopropp holders best interest to push/hold the share price down to maximise the numbers of shares they pick up at announcement of the JV). How many of you have actually gone to Ecopropps website for the full specifications of their product and looked at/compared with peers already established in the market? You'll see that Ecopropp doesn't outperform across the board, in fact it's a pretty bog standard product on many measures. How will they maintain specifications with different fly-ash? Well engineers will need to know what they're dealing with each time and given the variability in feedstock is this yet guaranteed? Many here are making peer comparisons, which really are ludicrous, saying that the smallest peer is worth $700 million USD is misleading (especially given that was the peak value at the top of the boom not the current value). It's like saying "look at AZK they're so cheap when you consider Intel is worth $XXXX" even if AXK make it how much more dilution/time/money until they really make a crack of it. CKK have not proven their product down well (months away at least, probably much longer) and do not (and probably will not) own infrastructure to produce large volumes rather take a cut of a bigger companies profits when they do so, a nice business model but one that's fiendishly difficult to make stick. Meanwhile the aforementioned peers can deliver millions of kilos of proppant next week if the oil price makes fracking unfinished wells economic near term.

I'm almost certain that a tirade of "down-ramping" and the like will be called at this post, but consider how many backslapping posts and "this is going to $200 million" calls are made each day? I'm certainly not giving investment advice, but it might be worth looking more closely at exactly how much needs to be done before NWP/CKK turn a profit. That is unless you think they'll get bought out? Which I suppose isn't impossible.

Expand

That's a long post. You do raise some good points. Of course it is a downramp - no one loves their 0 key enough to type 2,100,000,000 unless they are trying to make it look a big scary number. Eddie Sugar calls our product a 'game changer' and you call it 'bog standard'. Of course it's a downramp, just as we all know a ramp when we see it. I still appreciate the post and it's good to have the con's pointed out.

I do think you've highlighted why we're all a bit excited tho ... potential.
AJX - game changing product, EAS on board, huge potential market, went to ~190m MC on Jan 12 before first significant commercial sector account announcement on Jan 20 due to the market recognising this potential

CKK/LWP - game changing product, EAS on board, huge potential market, ... what MC will it get to. Once producing at scale, if the tests are positive, it's sold off the specs, it doesn't need to be deployed down mine. Already in talks with China, US, India, Europe and Canada

Yes, it's a different sector, revenue models completely different, AJX has started initial commercialisation already, it's not the best comparison. But I think Wortza was pointing out there are some similarities and it's the potential of both companies ...

I'm almost certain a tirade of 'ramping' and the like will be called at this post ... nah, prob not

CKK Price at posting: 1.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
27 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

There are more pages in this discussion • 9 more messages in this thread...

First 48 Last

Add CKK (ASX) to my watchlist