Hi mate,
here are some key grabs.
"The recent retracement in cobalt prices from US$95,000 per tonne to US$89,000 is a buying opportunity in our view,” Citi said.
“We see prices rising to average US$100,000 per tonne by the fourth quarter of 2018 and increasing further over time, to average US$110,000 per tonne by 2020.” Found here:
http://resourceworld.com/index.php/cobalt-bulls-advised-to-buy-on-dips/
Brendan Borg also re-tweeted this ...
View attachment 1201683
I can't find much recent data from citibank that justifies this price prediction, so I assume it could be under-wraps and not released YET .... Yet, I did find the from the end of 2017. However, the price of cobalt did reach $95,250/t earlier this year and therefore, Citibank were low balling with this earlier prediction.
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Citi expects the market deficit to widen further to 5.8-12.1kt for the period of 2017-20 from the previous expectations of 5-11.2kt.
Citi maintain forecasts for cobalt prices to average $62,500/t by Q4 17, r
ising to $63,000/t in 2018 driving higher to $70,000/t by 2020.
View attachment 1201677
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For my take on the Co pricing ...
The rises in Q1 were helped by a number of factors, but the most significant was
increasing demand from the battery sector, but also strong demand for more traditional uses such as superalloys. Cobalt being a
thermal stabiliser in the ever-expanding EV market, won't be removed anytime soon. It takes any industry years to convert to implementing a new technology. In the case of battery mineral proportionalities, it won't happen overnight - and t
hat is assuming they can completely irradicate cobalt from batteries, which despite the black smoke, analysts will tell you that it can't be done. Not yet, at least.
As shown, interest in cobalt continued to increase in the first three months of the year, as more carmakers and technology companies joined the race to secure supply of the metal. I don't believe this has stopped yet, and to be quite frank, I feel it's still an armed race.
Large long-term deals are reported between automakers and raw material suppliers could shock the market and impact pricing.
Cobalt at current prices of ~70k/ t isn't a negative. I think it's quite positive, and may potentially stabilise around this point before we see any north movement. IMO, it was over-priced given the macro dynamics of the market surrounding Co earlier this year, and in many instances had producers and manufactures flustered over how expensive the damn thing was.
Cheaper cobalt pricing/t may encourage car-makers to use it, rather than focussed on finding alternatives. You can see with the media press alone that Elon isn't blowing around saying he is going to irradicate Co, and I feel that the drop in price may have played a role in this ... all speculation.
As a note, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expect prices to continue to increase but not at the rate seen in Q1, stating: “I don’t expect any major correction following the recent rapid gains, but as we approach the historical all-time highs I think there will be more resistance to further rises".
Make of it what you will!
All IMO, however, it would appear to be bullish moving forward.
$CLA needs impending announcements to start moving again, in conjunction with a correction in the Co price/t. Either way, it's not going away and the world needs cobalt for the time being.
Good luck all.
(20min delay)