Clarios forecasts Lead Acid Battery demand growth of 2.5%pa to 2040

Battery maker Clarios produces of one third of the world’s Lead Acid Batteries.
At a conference on 11 January 2021, Craig Rigby, Clarios vice president, technology, forecast global demand for
Lead Acid Batteries to increase by 236 million batteries by 2040, an increase of 63% in 20 years.

Clarios estimates most vehicles will require a 12V battery for essential, safety-critical functions,
such as supporting peak energy loads for steering and braking systems, powering over-the-air
updates when the vehicle is off and for electric or hybrid vehicles, supplying power to low voltage systems if the primary battery fails.

Next-generation lead battery technology will unlock its full potential, pushing the boundaries of
electro-chemistry performance, delivering significant improvement in charge acceptance to not
only enable the latest vehicles features and usage, but ensure sustained performance over time
for all-electric and eventually, autonomous vehicles.

https://www.clarios.com/news-views/news-detail

A risk to the forecast by Clarios is Tesla’s announcement on 12 February 2021 that it is moving to
replace the Lead Acid Battery in its Models S and X with a 12v lithium battery.

Reference: https://www.batteriesinternational.com/2021/02/12/tesla-announces-it-will-ditch-theauxiliary-lead-battery-in-models-s-and-x/

However, the same article also noted that a recent survey by highly respected battery research group
Avicenne Energy found that Lead Acid Batteries remained the product of choice for all vehicle makers,
Tesla excepted, and preferred over Lithium Batteries because of:
1. Lower unit cost
2. Vehicle compatibility
3. Enhanced temperature performance
4. Flexibility in vehicle battery location
5. Standardization
6. Maturity of supply chains and
7. Recyclability

Batteries are required for both new vehicles and as replacements for batteries in the existing fleet. As
shown in the figure above, even at a spectacular annual growth rate of 36%pa, the share on Battery
Electric vehicles in the total fleet in 2030 forecast to be only 6.7% or 140M Electric Vehicles vs 1982M
Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles.