Why focus on the shareholder class action? There will be a...

Why focus on the shareholder class action? There will be a restricted number of claimants based on timing of purchases and a proportion of those won't claim.

The BOLR claim - I suspect 10's of millions$ will be settled, but not hundreds.

The superannuation claim to me seems potentially larger? But not sure where it is at.

I think the various arrangements of the last few months will have now freed up sufficient cash to cover any claims and separation costs. So we now have a bank worth maybe $1.8bn (at least?), Private markets worth at least $800m? China Pensions etc, maybe at least another $400m and then wealth platforms on top of that... assuming all claims can now be settled out of cash and investments, it looks to me that we have value here. It's just a question of finding a balance for wealth between service level, fees and regulatory expectations. Eventually technology may help to resolve this. The client base is huge and relatively sticky, so opportunity is there. Of course markets won't be entirely happy until they can see a set of base-line, uncluttered FY accounts for each entity... we're really on a 2 year plan here minimum to reach that point.

The biggest weakness is a culture that has tied itself in knots, trying to cash-cow the business for various stakeholders and confusedly assumed the regulator is an adequate proxy for a client. Now that stakeholder expectations have been slashed to something more realistic and hopefully the business has a very clear picture of regulatory expectations, they can get back to a focus on providing products that clients want and need along with supporting passionately good financial advice (where that still falls within their remit).

Agree though that the class actions and contingent liabilities remain the biggest uncertainty in the share price - but I'm hopeful it has now been fully-discounted, and some. (I've labelled a "buy", because I am a buyer under $1, but would not recommend to anyone else right now! Definitely speculative and probably worth waiting till the next set of accounts has been filed in Feb!)