claytons production wells, page-3

Reading through the quarterly this evening, even knowing what I did about the reservoir and water problems, I am still shocked by the dreadful results of the development drilling programme in the last quarter.

You can hardly say that I was exaggerating their difficulties. Not a single well made the anticipated 400bopd, and most added very little production at all. The NSE Central ones were particulary disappointing, located as they are in the core production area.

Five production wells were completed, but production still could not keep up with the natural decline. This is not what we were promised. It was a very poor quarter indeed.

But then they got lucky just after the quarter ended: two surprising successes that saved their bacon, just short of the reporting deadline. And that's what it is in reservoirs like this: luck. One day you hit a big fracture and your luck is in. And one day you don't, or you suck up the water and your luck is out.

Horizontal or highly deviated wells were supposed to be the answer to this, but that doesn't seem to have been the case. Besides which, horizontal wells in fractured ground are hazardous, expensive and slow.

However, they have got lucky. Within a week WBEXT-1 should be contributing handsomely to sales, and substituting for at least 4 of those failed development wells. So hopefully it won't suck up water too soon, or have to be choked back too hard to keep the water down.

Besides which, they also appear to have discovered a new production fairway, running north from the original Wichian Buri field, straight into tax-advantaged L33/43. We should hope that their new found focus on these areas will play out more satisfactorily than the disappointment that has followed the initial Bo Rang and L44-W delight.

Meanwhile, CVN is a market play again. So I thought it only fair, in view of my previous pessimistic comments, to say that I had changed my short term view on the stock.

But pay no attention to me. Do your own research, and pay for advice that you trust. And never imagine for a minute that anything said here will have any effect on the price of CVN.