We need to compare the new top twenty with an old top twenty and...

We need to compare the new top twenty with an old top twenty and see which players took up their entitlements and which ones didn't. Some of the old ones have them in the bottom of the drawer. Some got the their shares from deals made, only to have the share price tank. Some people just refuse to take a loss. A lot I would say are just waiting to break even. Some, I believe are up to and beyond 8 cents a share pre-consolidation. That is $1.60 post-consolidation. That is a big jump. The ones that did not take up their entitlements will bail if the price is right.

So this will be driven by supply, which will be driven by the sellers breakeven point and by demand driven by perception of upside. And it will be driven by the narrative combined with the unfolding of milestone events.
Those events are
(1) the expiration of the 90 days
(2) Vale' decision to go to stage one
(3) Vale's decision to go stage two
(4) the DTM

Nothing much will disrupt the chart other than these events. However, someone, singular (most likely, otherwise their would be a price war) or plural is accumulating. When they reach 5% the market has to be informed. Whoever that party is has the potential to set the chart ablaze. The other left field factor is that Vale renegotiates the deal which will only accelerate the timetable.

Me. I am hoping that there is little movement between now and the end of January. I will buy at this price. For the record, I did not take up my entitlements. Long story, I was rushed to hospital and could not finish a project in time to be paid before the deadline.