Just ran through a few modelling scenarios based on capex assumptions and pricing references from other Canadian magnetite plays. If Cyclone goes with a 10Mtpa base case, I suspect we’ll see something around $1.3B AUD NPV with an IRR in the 11–13% range, depending on whether they model DR-grade pricing ($130–140/t) or stick to more conservative P65 levels.
Capex is looking heavy (~$4–4.5B AUD) with the renewable power component forming a major chunk — good ESG angle, but adds weight to the upfront spend.Keen to hear what others are thinking — what’s your take on where the NPV could land? And how much weight will the market give to any 20–30Mtpa upside scenarios if the base case is soft?
CLE Price at posting:
5.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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