What would it take for the share price to take off in coming...

What would it take for the share price to take off in coming weeks? Not much really.

Brokers that have researched it come up with a NPV of around a $1.60, so it's already undervalued by 30c according to that. Several brokers have a strong buy recommendation. This is why:

There are 3 wells going down in the offshore Perth basin, the 1st is underway now. All 3 are seeking ~20-55mmbbls of oil each and Arc's share is 6% for the 1st 2 and 15% for the last.

The 1st of the 2 well Yemen program will be spudded in days, the drill pad is ready and the rig is being mobilised. Reeb1 is seeking 60mmbbls and Al Magrabah is seeking 35. Arc's share is 15%.

The Drakea onshore Perth basin exploration well is seeking 15mmbbls of oil (worth around $1 per share to Arc) is most likely to be spudded later this month after the current B4 deeps development/exploration well that is searching for a new 10BCF extension of an existing gas field, itself worth ~ 15c per share to Arc. Following this they should get in 2 Canning Basin wells before the end of June given 2 are off the same drilling pad and Arc' s share is 33%. After that there are ~ 3 more likely to be drilled before the end of the wet, seeking a total of ~ 100mmbbls of oil and 2000 BCF of gas and Arc currently have 100% of these prospects.

In other words, the search for a net 100mmbbls+ of oil and 100pj + of gas is well under way and in the next 3 months alone ~ 10 exploration wells are possible. If they combined result in an Arc's share being 10mmbbls, it would worth more than $200m to them (or $800m at the refinery gate) plus the exploration premium of 30c per share would be restored. Add them both together and the share price could quite easily double from it's current level but could still generate very respectable gains on more modest results.



These are my opinions as a current shareholder only, not investment advice. DYOR.