and other estimatesPosted on November 12, 2010 by Rolf...

and other estimates
Posted on November 12, 2010 by Rolf Schuttenhelm
On Tuesday the International Energy Agency presented its World Energy Outlook 2010. Apart from many other facts and estimates concerning energy trends the report shows two interesting scenarios: the New Policies Scenario (where current G20 agreements are implemented) and the 450 Scenario � where the world would actually try to reach the UN climate goal of halting climate change at no more than 2 degrees � or stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm CO2 equivalents.

These are the requirements for the 450 Scenario:


Oil demand peaks just before 2020 at 88,000,000 barrels per day � and declines to 81 mln in 2035
Coal demand should also peak before 2020
Gas demand should peak before 2030
Renewables and nuclear double combined share to 38% in 2035
Therefore:

All fossil fuel subsidies should be abolished, fast
The freed 312,000,000,000 dollars per year should be spent on carbon extensive development, because:
Due to the lack of ambition in Copenhagen � and the consequential policy delays � the cost of reaching the 2 degree target has risen to 1 trillion dollars (these are of course all to be seen as economic investments as well, not as damage)
http://www.bitsofscience.org/world-energy-outlook-2010-519/