xc-mse, with regards to the accuracy of BOM forecasts, that is easy to answer. It was the subject of a recent parliamentary forecast and was determined to be "less than useful", or about 50%. BOM have tried to improve their accuracy by issuing forecasts such as "a 50% chance of above average rain and a 50% chance of below average rain". Last year they actually issued a forecast of "a 40% chance of above average rains" which led to one newspaper headlining the story as "Good news for farmers" and later justifying it by claiming that the forecast was for above average rain even if there was only a 40% chance. It's little wonder that those who rely on accurate forecasts to maintain their livelihood have little confidence in BOM and try to obtain their forecasts from other sources, even overseas agencies. Only about half actually rely on BOM forecasts which seems to correlate with the recognised accuracy.
