Climate Change" Mudels" Driving Politcs

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    Previously I have asked  climate change advocates here on hot copper who base their predictions of  climate change on "mudels" what global experiment proves the mild increase in temperatures since 1900 (1.3C)   is related to CO2 increase and what percentage of this change is directly attributable to CO2 increases.

    Apart from the fact both have increased I have received no coherent explanation other than being referred to the authoritative statements of  climate change experts ,Thunberg, Kerry ,Guterres , Flannery and Mann.


    How El Nino La Nina And The Sun Drive Climate Change!




    By Jim Steele (WUWT 21/5)
    The short answer, based on peer-reviewed science is, small increases in solar insolation increase the tropical trade winds. Stronger trade winds push the Pacific Ocean into a La Nina-like state that reduces cloud cover in the eastern Pacific and eastern Atlantic. Less cloud cover during La Nina-like conditions increase heat flux into the oceans, where the greatest heat flux is now observed. That greater flux warms the oceans and via ocean currents warms the world as it ventilates, as it does now. In contrast El Nino-like conditions increase cloud cover over the eastern Pacific and reduces heat flux into the oceans which cools the world as it did during the Little Ice Age.

    In the American southwest, natural La Nina-like conditions induce dry climates and reduce vegetation. Panel “A” from Jimenez-Moreno (2021) using proxy evidence from precipitation-sensitive Pinyon Pines in southwest, illustrates 1200 years of climate change and the oscillating effects of EL Nino and La Nina. When solar irradiance was low during the solar minimums, reduced trade winds created EL Nino-like conditions that enabled greater precipitation across the southwest, and greater growth of Pinyon Pines during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from 1400 to 1850 AD.
    Previously from 800 to 1400 AD, solar maximums increased the trade winds and caused the American southwest to suffer megadroughts due to dominance of La Nina-like conditions.

    Panel “B” represents the standard contrast between El Nino and La Nino events. During La Nina-like conditions, strong trade winds blow warm water to the west and cause upwelling of cool subsurface water which reduces cloud cover. Reduced cloud cover amplifies solar heating of the oceans. Thus, Southwest megadroughts and warmer temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period strongly correlate with La Nina-like conditions.
    During El Nino-like conditions the trade winds are weakened, allowing warmer water to slosh eastward increasing cloud cover over the eastern Pacific. The decrease in solar insolation cools the ocean and the climate and correlates with the Little Ice Age.

    Panel “C” from Cronin (2024) illustrates the heat flux into the ocean during the instrumental period. The greatest heat flux into the ocean (red regions) happens in the eastern Pacific, exactly where La Nina-like conditions reduce cloud cover. That solar heat is stored in the subsurface and transported via ocean currents poleward. The blue regions represent areas where more heat ventilates out of the ocean than enters. Thus those regions do not warm the oceans, but cool the oceans. There is no global ocean warming. Ocean warming is local!
    You can recognize ignorant climate alarmists who try to dismiss the effects of ENSO falsely stating there is no net warming from ENSO, because it simply causes a back and forth warming and cooling that doesn’t affect long term climate change. They are indisputably ignorant or dishonest.
 
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