Climate Change Science ?, page-36

“Twenty years after the 1990 prediction, we see it’s not perfectly accurate – it’s about a 0.4 degree rise instead of a 0.55 degree rise – but it’s still statistically significantly above zero,” he said.

“Climate models can’t predict year to year variations but the long term trends are clear. The take home message is that the climate models we are using now should be accurate in years to come.”

Dr Corney said the trend showed showed the benefit of acting quickly.

“We are locked in now for a certain amount of climate change between now and 2030. No matter what we do now it will have little effect between now and 2030,” he said.

“But what we do now will have a stark effect on what happens in 50 years time or 100 years time.”

https://theconversation.com/20-years-on-climate-change-projections-have-come-true-11245

“Now a new evaluation of global climate models used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures over the past half-century answers that question: most of the models have been quite accurate.

The results: 10 of the model projections closely matched observations. Moreover, after accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other factors that drive climate, the number increased to 14. The authors found no evidence that the climate models evaluated either systematically overestimated or underestimated warming over the period of their projections.

“The results of this study of past climate models bolster scientists’ confidence that both they as well as today’s more advanced climate models are skillfully projecting global warming,” said study co-author Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York. “This research could help resolve public confusion around the performance of past climate modeling efforts.”

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/...are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/