The thermo dynamics: it would have moved slowly and so reduced cooling by evaporation thereby heating the water more. On the other hand a fast drop from an early snap means less time to cool before engaging with the water. Just two of a huge number of variables needing supercomputers and vast teams of bowl water change scientists to model accurately. On a side note if it wasn’t a clean snap it would muddy the waters and require even more computing power and research grant cash.
