FY20 costs $75
FY21 costs $74
FY22 costs $84
FY23 costs $103
FY24 cost guidance $103-$113
FY25 cost $?? Upwards of $120+ at this stage.
WHC was at the upper end of guidance in FY23 and if its the same for FY24 and if coal drops to $110USD/t (seems possible) that's only a $60 margin. Then you have royalties, taxes, capex, and your profit margins are <$30aud/t, And that's assuming production guidance's are met.
I'm not poo pooing coal as a useful commodity, but the cash flow isn't there anymore.
WHC having more Met coal helps, but I don't know what those costs will be.
Climate Change, page-327
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