Volcanic eruptions can play havoc with the BoM’s ability to...

Volcanic eruptions can play havoc with the BoM’s ability to correctly predict the Nino Ninia cycle’s not to mention that they have very limited understanding to predict cyclone events and the probability of strength, relative to the individual storms.

That’s why the BoM gives hourly updates on the strength of each individual storm.

So much of Forecasting is just a Lucky Dip .