climate skeptics unpersuaded by extra-hot 2010, page-4

The following 10 Facts and 10 Myths on climate change were written by By Prof. Robert
M. Carter, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia, Global Research.ca (Robert
M. Carter is a Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the
University of Adelaide (South Australia). He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine
geologist and environmental scientist with more than thirty years professional
experience.)
The 10 FACTS:
1. Climate has always changed, and it always will. The assumption that prior to the
industrial revolution the Earth had a "stable" climate is simply wrong. The only sensible
thing to do about climate change is to prepare for it.
2. Accurate temperature measurements made from weather balloons and satellites
since the late 1950s show no atmospheric warming since 1958. In contrast, averaged
ground-based thermometers record a warming of about 0.40 C over the same time
period. Many scientists believe that the thermometer record is biased by the Urban
Heat Island effect and other artefacts.
3. Despite the expenditure of more than US$50 billion dollars looking for it since 1990,
no unambiguous anthropogenic (human) signal has been identified in the global
temperature pattern.
4. Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would be -
180 C rather than the equable +15 C that has nurtured the development of life.
Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, responsible for ~26% (80 C) of the total
greenhouse effect (330C), of which in turn at most 25% (~20C) can be attributed to
carbon dioxide contributed by human activity. Water vapour, contributing at least 70%
of the effect, is by far the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas.
5. On both annual (1 year) and geological (up to 100,000 year) time scales, changes in
atmospheric temperature PRECEDE changes in CO2. Carbon dioxide therefore cannot
be the primary forcing agent for temperature increase (though increasing CO2 does
cause a diminishingly mild positive temperature feedback).
6. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has acted as the main
scaremonger for the global warming lobby that led to the Kyoto Protocol. Fatally, the
IPCC is a political, not scientific, body.
Hendrik Tennekes, a retired Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute, says that "the IPCC review process is fatally flawed" and that
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"the IPCC wilfully ignores the paradigm shift created by the foremost meteorologist of
the twentieth century, Edward Lorenz".
7. The Kyoto Protocol will cost many trillions of dollars and exercises a significant
impost those countries that signed it, but will deliver no significant cooling (less than
.020 C by 2050, assuming that all commitments are met).
The Russian Academy of Sciences says that Kyoto has no scientific basis; Andre
Illarianov, senior advisor to Russian president Putin, calls Kyoto-ism "one of the most
aggressive, intrusive, destructive ideologies since the collapse of communism and
fascism". If Kyoto was a "first step" then it was in the same wrong direction as the
later "Bali roadmap".
8. Climate change is a non-linear (chaotic) process, some parts of which are only dimly
or not at all understood. No deterministic computer model will ever be able to make an
accurate prediction of climate 100 years into the future.
9. Not surprisingly, therefore, experts in computer modelling agree also that no current
(or likely near-future) climate model is able to make accurate predictions of regional
climate change.
10. The biggest untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all
scientists agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate.
The reality is that almost every aspect of climate science is the subject of vigorous
debate. Further, thousands of qualified scientists worldwide have signed declarations
which
(i) query the evidence for hypothetical human-caused warming and
(ii) support a rational scientific (not emotional) approach to its study within the
context of known natural climate change.
The 10 Myths:
Myth 1 Average global temperature (AGT) has increased over the last few years.
Fact 1 Within error bounds, AGT has not increased since 1995 and has declined since
2002, despite an increase in atmospheric CO2 of 8% since 1995.
Myth 2 During the late 20th Century, AGT increased at a dangerously fast rate and
reached an unprecedented magnitude.
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Facts 2 The late 20th Century AGT rise was at a rate of 1-20 C/century, which lies well
within natural rates of climate change for the last 10,000 yr. AGT has been several
degrees warmer than today many times in the recent geological past.
Myth 3 AGT was relatively unchanging in pre-industrial times, has sky-rocketed since
1900, and will increase by several degrees more over the next 100 years (the Mann,
Bradley & Hughes "hockey stick" curve and its computer extrapolation).
Facts 3 The Mann et al. curve has been exposed as a statistical contrivance. There is
no convincing evidence that past climate was unchanging, nor that 20th century
changes in AGT were unusual, nor that dangerous human warming is underway.
Myth 4 Computer models predict that AGT will increase by up to 60 C over the next
100 years.
Facts 4 Deterministic computer models do. Other equally valid (empirical) computer
models predict cooling.
Myth 5 Warming of more than 20 C will have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and
mankind alike.
Facts 5 A 20 C change would be well within previous natural bounds. Ecosystems have
been adapting to such changes since time immemorial. The result is the process that
we call evolution. Mankind can and does adapt to all climate extremes.
Myth 6 Further human addition of CO2 to the atmosphere will cause dangerous
warming, and is generally harmful.
Facts 6 No human-caused warming can yet be detected that is distinct from natural
system variation and noise. Any additional human-caused warming which occurs will
probably amount to less than 10 C. Atmospheric CO2 is a beneficial fertilizer for plants,
including especially cereal crops, and also aids efficient evapo-transpiration.
Myth 7 Changes in solar activity cannot explain recent changes in AGT.
Facts 7 The sun's output varies in several ways on many time scales (including the 11-,
22 and 80-year solar cycles), with concomitant effects on Earth's climate. While
changes in visible radiation are small, changes in particle flux and magnetic field are
known to exercise a strong climatic effect. More than 50% of the 0.80 C rise in AGT
observed during the 20th century can be attributed to solar change.
Myth 8 Unprecedented melting of ice is taking place in both the north and south polar
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regions.
Facts 8 Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are growing in thickness and
cooling at their summit. Sea ice around Antarctica attained a record area in 2007.
Temperatures in the Arctic region are just now achieving the levels of natural warmth
experienced during the early 1940s, and the region was warmer still (sea-ice free)
during earlier times.
Myth 9 Human-caused global warming is causing dangerous global sea-level (SL) rise.
Facts 9 SL change differs from time to time and place to place; between 1955 and
1996, for example, SL at Tuvalu fell by 105 mm (2.5 mm/yr). Global average SL is a
statistical measure of no value for environmental planning purposes. A global average
SL rise of 1-2 mm/yr occurred naturally over the last 150 years, and shows no sign of
human-influenced increase.
Myth 10 The late 20th Century increase in AGT caused an increase in the number of
severe storms (cyclones), or in storm intensity.
Facts 10 Meteorological experts are agreed that no increase in storms has occurred
beyond that associated with natural variation of the climate system.