Scott,
Climate change always occurring and all of the parameters you mention not increased or at worst marginally according to your bible the IPCC.
So really nothingness . Just over 1 deg C warming since 1900 and a steady sea level rise of about 2.5 mm per year since the 1850`s.
So below the IPCC`s conclusions
Take IPCC AR6 ( Focus on the unlikely scenarios)
So which scenarios does IPCC focus AR6?
If “neutral” we might assume a fairly equal focus of attention across scenarios (similar to how SRES was used) since WG1 AR6 judges none more likely than another
On the other hand the literature is heavily biased to extreme scenarios…
So this is a BIG problem
The scenarios IPCC admits are unlikely dominate the report w/ 41.5% of all scenario mentions
The scenarios judged most likely under current trends get only 18.4% of mentions
Implausible scenarios (8.5 + 7.0) total 53% of mentions, more than half!
From AR5 WG1 to AR6 WG1 the emphasis on 8.5 scenarios increased dramatically.
AR6 on Flooding
Ch.8 on flooding:
“the assessment of observed trends in the magnitude of runoff, streamflow, and flooding remains challenging, due to the spatial heterogeneity of the signal and to multiple drivers”
Heavy precipitation
Frequency and intensity have increased at a global scale (of note, only “likely” >66% certainty)
Drought Chapter 11
Low probability caused by humans.
EM DAT reporting system which measures number of natural disasters globally has not increased since 2008.
Before 2006 many natural disasters not reported so jump in numbers after that time.
