Might need a consol? G, mate, I think you're understating it a...

Might need a consol? G, mate, I think you're understating it a bit.

My guess: 1:50 (min.) That would mean an equivalent pre-CR SP of 35c (i.e. 0.7c x 50). Then raise with a 40% discount at, say, 20c (i.e. 0.4c in the 'old money'), not counting the dilution effect of the CR. That would provide enough SP headroom (above zero) for several more CRs to pi$$ away over time before the next consol round, due to likely accompanying ongoing SP deterioration at time goes by, sans any material discovery.
One thing they can't get around: Consol or not, the Board will need to go to SHs after the next CR at the latest, in order to obtain sign-off for for more raising headroom. I'm thinking the cap-in-hand event will likely coincide with a capital restructure, timed for Nov's AGM.

Potential Restructing Roadmap:
Stage 1 CR in July (new FY) using the full 15% auto-reset limit without requiring SH sign-off. It would need to be at an attractive discount, so adopt, say 0.4c for a $2.2M gross raise. That would be enough for around four-ish months, or until the AGM (in Nov), at which point there would be no escaping asking SHs to approve a material share issuance ceiling reset (i.e.well-above the 15% + 10% normal limits) -- more likely than not accompanied by a restructure.

This brings us to Stage 2, which would align with the AGM (per above) for SH approval (and actual cash top-up) purposes. It would involve a couple of steps which would occur consecutively as part of an overall 'reset' for the next 12 months, at least. It could/would involve a, say, 1:50 consol, along with a material raising also at that time.

Stage 2, Phase 1: Revised SOI after the additional 15% issued in July would be ~4,270M shares (i.e. today's 3,713M x 1.15). A 1:50 consol around the time of the AGM (to restock depleted cash) would mean the post-consol total SOI of ~85M shares, with a notional mathematically adjusted SP of 35c -- also on a post-consol basis (i.e. 0.7c x 50).
(I've tried to be generous and have assumed that the SP manages (by then) to recover from the 0.4c discounted raising in July back to 0.7c immediately prior to the consol/CR restructure in Nov.)

Stage 2, Phase 2: With the new capital structure canvas now prepared, the Board also proposes issuance of an additional 43M shares (i.e. 50% new share issuance). So, the post-consol SOI would lift from 85M to a new final SOI of ~128M shares.
This 43M new issuance could be raised at an 'enticing' discounted price of, say, 20c (i.e. 40% discount (again) to the 35c notional SP immediately after the consol). This would raise ~$8.5M and would be enough to keep the lights on and fund some low-level exploration for the next 12 months... until next year's AGM.

For those who are more than a little bit confused at how that relates to the capital structure right now, don't feel too bad. It's not rocket science, but there are a few moving parts, which most retail punters find confusing. In order the ease the pain a bit, the Board will need to pair the unpalatable restructure messaging with a narrative that provides some 'sizzle' hope. Think of a juicy new prospect, or some such message. It'll be emotional, but getting some traction on 'hope' will be the only way to pull it off.

In terms of direct comparison to today's capital structure, the above scenario would result in the equivalent of ~73% dilution (i.e. equivalent SOI (in today's unadjusted terms) increased from current 3,713M to 6,400M). (Calcs: 3,713M (current) x 1.15 (July 15% issuance) x 1.5 (post-consol 50% issuance.).
In terms of direct comparison to today's SP it would also be an equivalent post-restructure raising SP of 0.4c in today's unadjusted terms -- remembering that I've assumed 1 x SP rise after the July CR on some pre-restructuring pumping.

In summary: An equivalent of 0.4c today, but on a 73% diluted basis compared to today.
(PS. If the SP following the July CR doesn't bounce back, then the numbers get uglier.)