close of business thursday 17 april 2008

Close of Business Thursday (17 April 2008)

V.W.A.P. $1.291 on "low" volume of 4,263,622 shares (1,109 total trades ).

The last trade was at 4.10 pm ($1.29), a 2.4% increase on Wednesday’s closing price. The high for the day was $1.31.

On average, this represented a per trade value of $4,962 (average 3,844 shares).


With all the apparent bad news now factored in and with Tapis at above US$122/bbl, could the recovery in the BPT share price be starting? Or was it just the shorters covering bets?

I believe if it is a recovery that it will be a "U" shaped recovery and not a "J" shaped recovery (that we have seen in the past).

The prize for me still remains Cooper Basin/Delhi, followed by BMG. Demonstrated performance from BMG (and in particular Basker-6A) being the key to any material short term price appreciation.

News during the week that BMG is currently producing (albeit in a high oil price environment) at just over 10,000 BOPD (gross) was disappointing.

IMHO, Beach Management must deliver on sales revenue (without the benefit of crude oil trading!) this quarter that is better than those previously reported the last few quarters to get any material long term price appreciation.

Until then, speculatively driven high Tapis crude oil prices, in my opinion, will continue to put a floor under the share price.

Cheers

P.S. Until the BMG Operator (AZA) releases the new 2P reserve numbers and information on thickness of the producing sands (gross and net pays) and gas content of the shows and information on whether the drilling was away from the crest, we are in an information vacuum in my opinion.