closer look

Traders are all over this, so thought I'd have a closer look at the fundamentals - here goes.....

288m EBITDA estimated for FY2010
760m shares on issue
+ 80m to be issued at 18c

Net Assets 1.31 as at 30/06/09 down from 1.92 the year before.
Net Tangible Assets -1.48 30/06/09 down from -1.05 the year before.

I expect we will see some large write-downs this fin year of the 2b billion in Intangibles (only 20% written off to date)

2.926b in Debt post consolidation. They can support this with EBITDA of 288m

So earnings are good, NTA sux, banks support for now.

A simple capital raising (rights, SPP etc) would not generate enough cash to significantly dent the 3b considering the MC is ~72m post restructure ((760m + 80m) x 0.086c) , either a cornerstone investor (with retail / sophisticated) or majore asset sales on the horizon.

I can't foresee the directors being content having a large burden of debt long term, assets sales reduce the size of the directors empire so logically they'll be looking for a cornerstone like Brookfield did for BBI (now PIH).

At sub 10c in a rallying market, IMO a BUY!