closest to the pin

With the judgment due in the case of CHM vs MMX due on Wednesday I am sure there are a number of people interested in the results. As such I propose a competition of closest to the pin to provide an opportunity for individuals to test their skills as Analysts.

Having followed the case for the last couple of months (I am a holder or CFE)I have observed a great deal of passion or should I say bile being disgorged in the forums of Hotcopper and feel this is an opportunity for people to show that their investment decisions involve more than emotion or perhaps that their emotions are an accurate guide to their investments.

The game

Each person must forecast three figures before the release of the settlement amount on ASX. They are:
1) Amount of settlement to CHM.
2) Share price of CHM at end of day 20 October 2010.
3) Share price of MMX at end of day 20 October 2010.

The winner will the person with lowest sum of percentage differences.

Example

Settlement amount, I underestimate - guessed $50 million, actual is $60 million percentage = 20% difference (60/50).
I overestimate - guessed $70 million and actual was $60 million the percentage difference would be 14.3% (60/70).

Share price guessed, I underestimate - CHM 4 cents and actual is 5 cents then percentage difference would be 25% (5/4).
I overestimate - guessed CHM share price to be 4 cents and actual was 3 cents the percentage difference would also be 25% (3/4).

Share price guessed, I underestimate - MMX 160 cents and actual is 170 cents then percentage difference would be 6.25% (170/160).
I overestimate - guessed MMX share price to be 300 cents and actual was 210 cents the percentage difference would be 30% (210/300).

In the examples where I have underestimated the sum of the percentage differences would be:
20% + 25% + 6.25% = 51.25%

In the example where I have overestimated the sum of the percentage differences would be:
14.3% + 25% + 30 % = 69.3%

The winner in this example is the one that underestimated.

Rules:

1) The settlement amount awarded to CHM must be announced before 4pm, 20 October 2010.
2) Participants must have been registered on Hotcopper before 18 October 2010.
3) Participants agree to provide one case of Crown Larger (24 x 375ml bottles) to the winner (postage to winner's address within Australia included).

My forecasts:
Settlement to CHM - A$80 million
CHM share price - 6.2 cents
MMX share price - $1.85

May the best analyst win!

PS I live Melbourne (just so you know where to post my crownies!)