Hi Bobbym –
I refer you to your post - @ 12.47pm on 17 June - to the thread :
LSE Tonight:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/25332834/single
I am puzzled at how you can express the opinion that “………..88E can go to a dollar or even past it”
presumably based on Western Australia’s Stock Analysis’ promo newsletter of 07 June, per your post’s link:
http://triangleenergy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/StockAnalysis-Special-Edition-on-Xanadu-13-June-2017.pdf
(This talks about the prospects of TEG being successful with drilling its Xanadu prospect – off the Southwest Aust. Coast – commencing in Sep. ’17).
You have posted “………..they (TEG) are forecast to go to
$1.37 per share……” which infers to me that you have stated that based on such newsletter. However the newsletter’s last para. states:
“StockAnalysis calculates that the
unlikely event of discovery of 68 million barrels of oil at Xanadu, would be worth over
$1.70 per share to Triangle Energy”.
My comment is as follows :
- At $1.70/share for TEG, a 68m barrel discovery would make its MC ~$236m. (basis: 139m shares on issue).
- At $1.00/share for 88E, a successful discovery with IW2 would make its MC ~$4.6 bn!! (basis 4.6bn shares
on issue.)
Recent posters have suggested that,
maybe, $1 to $1.5bn could be the range of a takeover value offer based on IW2’s success, i.e. = to the range of 22c to 33c respectively, per share.
Even to estimate 40c a share as a likely SP in the near future, is what I could agree with, (& some other posters have also suggested) because at that time such SP would be purely based on
speculative frenzy.
This frenzy
always tends to occur, after a 1
st-time
major discovery by a small-cap explorer, of any commodity, based on my experience, going back to the late 1960’s.
But I disagree with 40c/share as the basis for a near-term takeover value, which equates to a $1.84bn offer.
Any major enterprise with that sort of loll would certainly be doing a lot of time-consuming “due diligence”, before they approach 88E.
Most of the posters BTW - who I’m referring to above - freely admit they are being speculative, about TO values, just as my thoughts are.
But yes, I do agree that
possibly a $4bn MC will eventuate, but not for a # of years, & also given
- the same success rate with future drilling on other acreage, as it expects from IW2
- a POO > $50US a barrel.
So would you care to elaborate on how you’ve arrived at the $1.37/share, as per your post? Guata.
(20min delay)