closure of a refinance deal must be close

Well its almost time for IEF to roll over their debt.
My guess is that they will get a 2/3 year extension with an increase in cost and a slightly elevated head room.
It may be the case that the bank leaves the LTV covenant as is, increases the current rate marginally (think it was circa 7% ish which shouldnt move much currently I wouldnt have thought) and sets up a tier structure for significant rate increases should the LTV be breached.

Personally I think the blowing out of cap rates has almost bottomed whilst there may be a couple of hotels in the portfolio with a little still to come out. Hopefully trading has improved for the operators over the christmas period and the portfolio will be in a better position.

Who has a prediction for share price at the end of the first qtr? I think maybe circa 30c assuming the refinancing is approved on broadly current terms.