SRL (ASX) CLQ...Valuation problems

Originally posted by sallywoofs ↑

Hi all.

I have a reputation with some readers as being an overenthusiastic
Clean Teq fanatic and Robert Friedland groupie who has been flim-flammed by CLQ propaganda, and whose judgment is corrupted by my absurdly large long position,
which is causinmg me daily distress and destroying my objectivity.

I suppose the accusations are understandable, even though they are not true. But partially because of this perception, I wanted to start a thread on one specific aspect of Clean Teq valuation that I think is a "problem"...namely, how and when Clean Teq stock can ever get fair value for the water division, and how on earth we ever might arrive at a vauation for it.

First off, many spec mining investors probably feel that the Aussie cobalt and nickel sector is already priced way below what it should be. This problem is not unique to Clean Teq Holdings. We can hear the same wailing from holders of other prospecting stocks...AUZ, PGM, ARL, EUC and so on.

At least in those companies we have some recognizeable metrics and numbers to go on...
reserves, cost per ounce, market price history on the commodities, ways to estimate capex, cash flow, price/earnings, etcetera etcetera.

We are on known ground, we have data to discuss even though it is fuzzy, and we can argue and joust about with each other on what financials and valuations might look like based on past experience. We even can estimate how long it will take to build a mine, or produce a feasibility study or drill off a deposit and assay the drilling.
***

But how the heck to we estimate income and revenue and profit for the water division ?

We have no idea what sales will be.
We have no idea of what the costs will be.
We have no idea of the size or number of the contracts.
We do not know how the contracts will be structured.

And even if we get a ballpark idea of revenue or sales or profit, how do we translate that to stock price valuation ? Do we use the multiples of a miner, and industrial, a tech company, or a utility ?
***

So...what do we know ?
We know the potential market is enormous and multi-faceted.
We ssee that CLQ has many key relationships and infrastructure requirements in place.
We know that CLQ has many technical applications that will enable them to address an exceedingly large number of customers of all sizes.
We know that CLQ has a large variety of trial contracts in different sectors.
We know that CLQ is well-positioned for large infrastructure projects in China.
**

Summing up, I am at a loss as to how to put a value on the water division.
I am sure I am not the only one. And we all know how the investment markets feel about uncertainty...THEY HATE IT. And in the case of CLQ, the average investor is only vaguely aware of the mineral and mining potential of the company, let alone the water potential.

Currently the market cap of Clean Teq Holdings in 500 million, give or take.
I think that the company valuation for the Sunrise project is roughly half of this, given the comps and status of the project compared to other spec miners.
This is admittedly a matter of opinion.

But for the sake of argument, we can take the cries of the mining competitors about CLQ's "overvalued" status as a mining project, and put them to good use to arrive at a current value of the tech and water aspects of the company. So just for a rough ballpark number, with ,market cap at $500 million, let's say that Sunrise is $350 million of current valuation, and the water is $150 million.

Thus at 60 cents Australian, one might say that Sunrise is 42 cents and
the water is 18 cents.

I think both valuations are cheap, though of course opinions will vary.

Expand

Sally,
I don't think the market has given the water division any value at all. Zero. I think that the current MC is all Sunrise. That could be good for us long term early investors.

Will take a big contract to be given a sideways glance imo. Can't wait for that day myself. The potential is enormous in China and middle east for water division. Potential I'm afraid doesn't pay the bills though. If it pays off over next 3 or 4.years though could be interesting.

SC

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(20min delay)
Last $1.35		Change 0.290(27.5%)		Mkt cap ! $155.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.14	$1.38	$1.11	$1.507M	1.175M

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