You've got to pay the bills one way or another.  Its going to...

You've got to pay the bills one way or another.  Its going to cost about 2 bil to build.  That's a hell of a hole to start out with.  No one doubts they can sell their product.  Who they sell it to doesn't make a lot of difference.  The way they finance it is certainly something of interest to investors, there are ways that are more and less friendly to present stockholders.  The key factors that will determine the success of this investment is how much product they can produce, and what price they can sell it for.  That is what the bet is here, can they produce at the levels that they think they can, and will the price of the product rise to levels where it makes a huge profit.  Those are the unknowns, and only time will answer it, and not for 3-4 years.  There will be clues along the way, and the stock price will react to those clues.  Another factor will be costs, though building costs were de-risked with the fixed cost deal, also whether the project moves on schedule, length of time for ramping up to full production capacity, and ultimate operating costs.  That's the total equation, but the main variables are what the production will be in say 2022, and what the selling price of the product will be once we have product to sell.  My interest in the sector is my expectation that cobalt and nickel sulphate prices will rise substantially by 2022, and scandium will be a fantastic side credit, making this ultimately a very good business to be invested in.  To me the biggest risk is what kind of production will we get, there is only a hope and prayer there, and commodity prices are a bit of a crapshoot, my expectation of significant price inflation may not pan out.  My present expectations on the water side has been reduced to near zero, but open to an upside surprise, anything substantial there would be great, but not holding my breath.  I've reduced my bet on this company by 80% some time ago, because the fundamentals shifted downward quite a bit with the cost increases and time delays and deadness on the water and extraction side, and market cap discepancy with its aussie comparables.  But the SP is way too low now to sell, so still around with an eye on how things unfold.