I like to come to this website and write long posts about stocks...

I like to come to this website and write long posts about stocks and funds I own. I'd hate anyone to think I actually know what I am talking about though. I have a lot of respect for people who actually understand the mechanics of how something like interest rates and hedging affects the balance sheet of REITs and can analyse the situation in regards to the numbers.

I too am surprised by both the lack of down-rampers, and the lack of short interest in REITs on the Shortman site.

Perhaps what you are talking about is confirmed by the following article on the CLW page on the Mark.et In.dex website:


I take this to mean CLW is amongst the REITs least hedged towards interest rates (on a variable rate, in residential property loan parlance). As for falling rates, I'll believe them when I see them! It will happen eventually, but it feels more medium term, rather than short term.

As weak as it sounds, my portfolio contains stocks performing much worse than CLW, which is probably skewing my thinking about how poorly CLW is actually doing! "Yeah, it's bad, but nowhere near as bad as XYZ, so that's okay".

Don't forget either that our hotel portfolio is rented at significantly under market rates. My understanding (which could be incorrect) is that Endeavour Group has been taking the Mickey for years, owing to valuations done pre, and during COVID -- before we took over the ALE REIT. I could be wrong. From memory, we were involved in litigation about that last year. And that 2027 was the year we could significantly renegotiate that major part of our portfolio. That might kick-in only 12 months after the 2026 hedge rolls off, if we are looking that far out. Maybe a deal with Endeavour would get done to bring that increase forward to 2026 in exchange for less of an increase than would otherwise have been passed through in 2027...

I'm definitely not chasing multiple large parcels at lower prices. However, if I can buy a smallish parcel and dollar cost average (sounds more scientific and financially literate than just averaging-down!) my average price by 6 months' worth of distributions (13 cents), increasing my distribution at the same time, I'll do it. My thinking is that at some point in time this investment of mine will sort itself out. Yeah, the vibe of thing I'm getting a reasonable return each quarter based on my investment so unless I sell, there's not a lot of real harm done. That changes if you're right and distributions are cut drastically in 2026.

I too am certain there will be losses reported (due to falling NTA) in December and next June.

Anyway, thanks again for your invaluable posts.