Hi oz trader, how do you get to 800-900k a month? The cfo previously stated that EBITDA to free cashflow conversion for track was -at about 65%-70%. This didn't take into account finance costs though which is about 240k per month currently. My est is q3 fcf was at around $500-$550k per month. Would love to be wrong and the amount be closer to your estimate but I don't think that's the case. Even still, at that conservative number we are talking FCF of $6m on a annualised basis. Even on a $52m EV, I'd say that's pretty impressive.
For me I just want management to execute integration, maintain earnings profile and knock off some debt in FY17. If that happens we double our money (And then some). Probability of this happening is high IMO.
The two items I will keep a close eye on over the next 12 months is 1) monitoring the trajectory of revenue and margins and 2) ensuring employee expenses grow at average run rate for nov and dec for QA and track. Growth from here on in employee costs needs to be measured so debt can be reduced and forward earnings can be estimated with a little more perceived confidence.
All in my opinion.
GLAH
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