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Nice post mate, can't disagree too much with that. All we need...

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johnnyfiasco

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17/04/16

17:21

Post #: 17525034
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Originally posted by DollarDan ↑

Hey JF, nice post.

Agree with most comments. We need to see sales grow to match employee costs from here. It could take a quarter to see any results flow through though. I assume that because of the nature of the business and going off the half year that any "capital" they are putting back into the segments will still be under normal operations (opex), so this needs to be kept in mind as this could temporarily squeeze margins. If they are trying to build out the subscription base I would think they would have a special project team which may be contractors only. So all things considered I think they are doing ok.

To be honest I don't think we can use the track 65-70% FCF figure anymore. I'm no tax expert but I doubt subscription will be paying anywhere near the income tax it was, in the foreseeable future.

Obviously we don't have the numbers to get too technical for a true fcf reading and I appreciate your conservative approach but based on 1H statement of cash flows I come to a figure of ~$710k/month cash.

I have based interest costs off the mention of €140k finance costs @1.6 ex to give $224k

So $672k interest.

Tax paid for last half was $285k which I have given all to two months of track.

Roughly $430k tax Q3 which I believe may still be high.

So $1.1m interest and tax.

$2.15m for the quarter minus cash from investing for a more reliable "FCF", which lets face it could be anything. I notice they have just moved into a new office....
The team is huge. It's all guns blazing.

At this point of the game and for simplicity, I am focusing on " NET cash flow from operating activities"
It gives us a nice figure to see how much is left for both debt service and re-investment keeping in mind that the majority of current re-investment already comes under payments to employees/suppliers.

Using your EV of $52m and say $8m net cashflow from operating activities it does paint a very pretty picture for the future on a cashflow basis!

CASH IS KING! Right?

EV/ Net cash from operations of around 6.5x

Sounds good to me.

Bring on that growth and finance cost reduction.

IMO
I'm not an accountant by any means.

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Nice post mate, can't disagree too much with that.
All we need now is time to turn the estimate free cash flow number to actual.

GLAH

CM8 Price at posting: 22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Nice post mate, can't disagree too much with that. All we need...

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Nice post mate, can't disagree too much with that. All we need...

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