I recall someone asking for a chart, so here goes.Overview:...

I recall someone asking for a chart, so here goes.


Overview: Daily market structure has changed from bearish to bullish with a consolidation period during H2 2022. Price looks to be testing the upper end of the range of this consolidation (0.034 resistance back in November 2022) following a retracement after the recent rally and raise. Price has reacted to the 0.026 price level on low volume and is now looking to be in a short term uptrend supported by rising volume. This supports trend continuation and may suggest that price will continue to rise in the near term. With that said, the potential for arbitrage is there due to large volumes of shares being present at the raise price (0.033) and it is unclear how many of these were sold during the recent selloff (there are of course another 500K worth of SPP shares at this price that are due to be issued this week). So for short termers, they will be looking to profit from price differences and may be happy with a few pips above 0.033 so we may see some selling as we did this afternoon after a strong open. Furthermore - price action has supported mean reverting trade strategies (i..e range trading) so we may see price oscillate within a channel, especially if volume continues to provide liquidity for traders. Traders are more likely to enter this trade now seeing as the 9 day EMA has just crossed the 25 day EMA (this happened yesterday), so this may provide higher short term volatility and liquidity. If accumulation occurs as it did during the low volume period just recently, we then expect price to move upwards within a channel where traders will be trading inside that range.

Market Structure
Firstly looking at the daily for key levels in the longer term:


We see that the key levels for where price is currently are 0.026,0.034 and 0.045 (and beyond this 0.05) . There isn't much in the way of market structure between 0.034 and 0.045, but if we want to talk about microstructure and look at the tape, we may have some resistance at 0.037 (todays high), 0.040 (psychological level) and 0.043 (orders on tape). I don't put too much weight on what is on the tape, but just to give a complete picture, if the orders are valid, we have some sellers between the CR price and the next significant resistance level (0.045) so I would expect some consolidation in this range in the weeks to come.

For the bullish case, it would be for 0.034 to hold. It was a previous resistance level from Nov/Dec last year, and if it holds up it is likely to provide decent support for the next move up. Previous resistance is usually a good indicator of future support if overall market structure is bullish. The daily chart exhibits correct bullish market structure (higher high followed by a higher low). Bullish case is I would expect price to move slowly upwards between the raise/SPP price (0.033) and 0.04 but with consolidation on the way (profit taking, arbitrage from the SPP &raise, and range trading).

Beyond these key structural levels (0.033, 0.04, 0.045) are the fib levels. See the chart below.



We see that fib levels are indeed respected. We see the 61.8% and 50% levels tested numerous times in retracements in the recent rally.
We also saw a very deep retracement (78.6%) which was respected. If these levels continue to be respected, they will provide additional levels of support/resistance. The 50% gann level is 0.035 and the 61.8% fib level is 0.031. The 50% level is one of the strongest indicators so if this level holds this is bullish IMO. The 61.8% should provide additional support in the event of negative macro factors or adverse news etc. The 38.2% level is around 0.039 which is close to the psychological level of 0.04

I consider 0.033 a key level too because it was the raising/SPP price. So with 0.033 being key, 0.034 being a key level from the chart, and 0.035 being the 50% Gann level, I consider the whole range 0.033-0.035 a key range (and because my bias is bullish, I am calling it a range of support)
I consider the range 0.039-0.040 our nearest resistance (31.8% fib level and psychological level of round figures)

So if we put these levels together we have:

• supports at 0.026 and the range 0.033-0.035 (within this range we have a raise price, a key structural level as well as a 50% Gann level),
• resistance in the range 0.039-0.040 as well as at 0.045 and 0.05

Lets look at the 15m chart just to look at the stochastics and behaviour of the moving averages



We can see the establishment of a channel respecting a short term trendline. The 50 period EMA is providing support, which we can see clearly from the 9 period EMA bouncing off it numerous times since it crossed it on the 24th of March.

We also see the MACD exhibiting an uptrend - it is now above the waterline, and is also showing a range channel. Both this and the price action can show you the likely range that traders will be using, and hopefully assist in discerning between traders entering/exiting for profit and a key structural change in the market (i.e. an actual sell-off, manipulation etc).

The RSI looks healthy, which means that the current trend is sustainable.

We see that we traded towards the top of this channel just after open, this is a sell signal for traders - so this might explain the selling in the afternoon. On the flip-side, as price approaches the low end of the channel, traders looking to open a position may enter as long as the trend continues (i.e the 9 period EMA remains above the 25 period EMA etc and does not cross it to the downside).

In short, hopefully this sheds some light on what we may see due to the behaviour or traders and profit taking that may occur, and despite all of this, the structure of the market looks bullish and this is without any price sensitive catalysts.