I’ve been a substantial holder of CM8 for a couple of years now. Yes it hurts.
I feel like there have not been many great financial decisions along the way, including a capital raise and a restrictive refi when neither seemed necessary.
My patience is wearing thin but I want to keep looking at the positives, what could some positive catalysts be? I'd like to hear your thoughts, mine are below:
1) Net debt 0? this is almost the case anyway, personally I don’t think the market will react that strongly, rather in Jan 2019 when the facility is paid off and the interest payments aren’t hitting the bottom line that will be the kicker
2) We start seeing some improvement in the underlying results / cashflow from their new businesses. Yes this is possible but I think the investment will take some time (as per their guidance that 2H and 1H will likely be alike), and if anything there is more risk to the downside in the underlying business given the fall off we saw last 2 quarters
3) Announcement of a dividend or share buy back… this for me would be the kicker. If Dom can (prudently) cut some costs, and once CM8 has net debt = zero they should be able to accumulate quite a bit of cash. Why wouldn’t he buy back shares at these levels? To me it seems like the no-brainer financial move? I guess he wouldn’t be in cash position to do this until the end of the financial year at least?
Your thoughts? I don’t see many other short term catalysts, seems like it will trade sideways for a while?
CM8 Price at posting:
7.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
